LS Trader Weekly Update

The past week has seen an overall decline in volatility as the daily ranges in many markets move in to a narrower band. Indecision is still the order of the day for many sectors, including stocks, currencies and energy markets. As before, the long term trend remains up for the dollar and stocks. As we wrote last week, many markets remain in trading ranges that have held for quite some time so the probability increases that the next breakout from these ranges could lead to decent sized moves.

This coming week we are entering 2 new trades.

The LS Trader System Weekly Update

Stocks ended the week slightly lower but still remain above the key lows formed on from Friday 5^th which continue to providing support and look to as though they could be the bottom for the immediate term. The March S&P 500 declined for the week but closed above 1100 support at 1103. The Nasdaq 100 ended the week slightly lower but strong buying support was found around the 1780 level. We may see a test of 1832.5 this week. The Nikkei is in a wide box range between 9800 and 10600 with these 2 levels providing strong support(9800) and strong resistance at 10600. A break of either level may give rise to a good move.

Volatility Index (VIX)

The VIX had another down week but the declines were much smaller than some of the recent moves seen in this market. The VIX ended the week down 1.75% for the week. As we wrote last week, the lows for stocks formed on the 5^th February continue to provide support and stocks look fairly bullish as long as that level holds, which is also keeping the VIX in check.

Commodities

Crude Oil (April contract) declined 0.5% for the week having once again been unable to stay above the key $80 level. The range now spans between $70 and $80 with more range bound trading looking likely between these levels. Those 2 levels remain the key levels to watch for a breakout. Long term the trend is still up for the energy sector.

With the exception of Silver, the metals were all marginally lower. Gold was unable to hold on to the highs of the week at $1131.50 and drifted lower before closing the week out down 0.29% at $1118.9. The current range for gold is between $1131.5 and $1044.5. Long term the trend remains up.

Currencies

The dollar index was lower for the week but the long term trend remains up as it does for the dollar against most of the majors.

The Euro found support at contract lows at $1.3451 before ending the week with a gain of 0.19%. The current chart pattern shows indecision at these levels and support at around $1.3440 is proving to hold firm for now. If this support level can be broken then we may see a swift move lower, otherwise a continuation higher to around $1.39-$1.40 may be seen.

From last week “The current range for the Pound now looks to be between $1.53 and $1.58.” The market took out support at $1.53 before closing at $1.5245. New multi month lows were posted earlier in the day on Friday at $1.5150. This will be the level to watch as we may find support here. To the upside resistance should be found just above $1.58.

Interest rate futures

Interest rate futures were higher for the week, recovering from the recent lows and resuming the uptrend. Even the lagging market of the sector, the 30-year Treasury Bonds, moved higher from short term support. The long term trend remains up for the shorter term markets but is still down for the 30 year T Bonds.

 
Kind Regards

Robert Stewart